Unravelling the Complex Geopolitical Landscape of the UK

Due to several factors, the UK’s geopolitical landscape has become increasingly more complex in recent years.

Although rich and complex, the factors include geography, history, security and defence, the US-UK special relationship, UK-EU relations, and geopolitical tension with Russia and China.

The UK is the 6th largest Economy & 2nd largest economy worldwide & Europe respectively.

It is a member of and participates in several organizations, such as the United Nations, NATO, IMF, World Bank, G7, G20, OECD, and Commonwealth.

Also, its ties with great powers like the United States, European Union, Russia, China, & India are vital to its geopolitical landscape.

Geopolitical Landscape: UK’s Strategic Location

• The UK consists of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
• It is located off the north-western coast of mainland Europe, between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Europe.
• In addition, it is surrounded by bodies of water: the English Channel to the south separates the UK from France. The Irish Sea lies between Great Britain (England, Scotland, Wales) and Ireland. The North Sea to the east divides the UK from mainland Europe. The Atlantic Ocean is to the west and northwest of the country.
• Thus, the UK can easily access vital Atlantic and Northern European maritime routes.
• Militarily, the North Sea, the English Channel, and the Atlantic Ocean have served as buffers that have protected the UK from direct military invasions, especially during World War II.
• Also, it shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland.
• Its control over parts of the North Sea allows it access to oil & gas.

The UK’s strategic location influences its trade & economy, military power, and interactions with neighbouring countries, mainly Continental Europe.

Geopolitical Landscape: UK Historical Role

The UK’s historical context is vital to its complex geopolitical landscape.

• At its peak from the 19th to early 20th centuries, the British Empire was the largest Empire in history.
• Its control spanned South Asia, East Asia, Sub Sahara Africa, the Middle East & North Africa, the Americas, and Oceania. Thus, roughly 24% of the Earth’s total land area.
• As a result, it allowed the UK to shape culture, language, and global trade routes in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Oceania.
• The Empire consisted of colonies, protectorates, dominions, and other territories administered by the UK.
• Post-World War 1 and II shaped the UK’s geopolitical mindset, positioning it as a leading global power. It achieved this by being among the founding members of NATO and the United Nations.
• Regarding the UN, the UK has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power since October 1945.
• Eventually, the UK joined the European Union in 1973, where it shaped its trade, economic, diplomatic, and human rights ideals.

Geopolitical Landscape: Brexit and Its Aftermath

Brexit changed the geopolitical landscape of the UK.

• The UK officially left the European Union (Brexit) in 2020. It left the single market & Customs Union, resulting in additional regulatory barriers for goods moving between the UK and EU.
• Border checks continue despite the UK & EU signing the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
• To minimize the impact of Brexit, the UK began pursuing free trade agreements with non-EU countries.
• The UK has already signed free trade agreements with Japan (2020), Australia (2021), and New Zealand (2022).
• In addition, it joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in July 2023. The eleven members have a combined GDP of $13.5 trillion, making it one of the world’s largest free trade areas.
• In addition, it is negotiating trade deals with Switzerland, Canada, the Gulf Cooperation Council, India, and South Korea.
• However, despite its difficulties, the UK-EU trade ties remain the most strategic, especially in critical sectors such as machinery and pharmaceuticals.

Overall, Brexit changed the UK’s geopolitical landscape. Thus, it is pursuing trade agreements with non-EU countries.

Geopolitical Landscape: US-UK Special Relationship

The “Special Relationship” between the US and the UK has profoundly impacted the UK’s Geopolitical landscape. It refers to the close diplomatic, military, and economic ties between the two countries since the early 20th century.

• The relationship deepened during World Wars I and II when both nations were significant allies. Winston Churchill made the term famous in a speech in 1946.
• After WW2, the US and the UK collaborated to create international organizations such as the United Nations, NATO, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund.
• In addition, through NATO, both countries have cooperated closely on joint military operations, intelligence sharing, and nuclear weapons collaboration under the 1958 US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement.
• In addition, the US and UK are also part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network, which includes Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
• Both UK and US troops have fought together in several conflicts, including the Gulf War (1991), the Kosovo War (1999), and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Both nations cooperate closely on counterterrorism efforts.
• On trade and investment, the US is the UK’s largest trading partner. While many US companies have their European headquarters in the UK, British companies have expanded their business presence into the US.
• US Presidents and UK Prime Ministers usually work together regarding crucial foreign policy objectives. Prominent examples include Churchill & Roosevelt (defeat Nazi Germany), Thatcher & Reagan (Win the Cold War), and more recently, Starmer and Biden (Russia in Ukraine).
• However, there have been moments of discord on issues like the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under President Trump.

UK-EU Relations

Since Brexit in 2020, UK-EU ties have been managed by the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

• The agreement was signed in December 2020 and covers trade, law enforcement cooperation, and market access.
• In addition, before Brexit, the UK was part of the EU’s market and customs union, enjoying tariff-free trade. Post-Brexit, new customs checks and regulatory barriers make trade more complex and expensive.
• While Britain no longer participates in the EU’s common defence and security policy, it has not severed all ties. The UK continues cooperating with the EU through its membership in NATO and various bilateral agreements.
• Although diplomatic relations remain strong, tensions have periodically exploded over the Northern Ireland Protocol & fishing rights.

The UK aims to maintain strong ties with the EU, focusing on trade, security, etc.

Geopolitical Landscape: Security and Defence

As a leading NATO member, security & defence reflect the UK’s geopolitical landscape & interests and the need to address evolving global threats.

• Despite Brexit, the UK plays a vital role in NATO. It contributes its military power to the defence and security of Europe and beyond, including joint troop deployments, cybersecurity, and intelligence-sharing.
• Therefore, it maintains military bases in Canada, Germany, the Falkland Islands, etc, to project power and influence globally.
• Locally, the UK hosts several critical military bases and naval ports, including Faslane (the UK’s nuclear submarine base).
• Its location also makes it an important staging point for NATO operations. During the Cold War, the UK’s strategic position was crucial for monitoring the Soviet Union’s activities in the North Atlantic.
• The UK’s Emerging geopolitical threats include the Russian bear and China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Thus, to counter China’s growing power, the UK and the US are building alliances with countries like India, Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea. As a member of AUKUS (with the US and Australia), the UK is already a key player in the region’s security dynamics.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 strengthened the UK’s role in European security. Thus, it has provided Ukraine massive military, financial, and humanitarian aid.

The UK will likely continue to play a vital role in NATO, ensuring the continent’s security against threats from Russia, China and other geopolitical actors.

Global Trade and Economic Realignment

Unfortunately, Brexit altered the UK’s trade ties. Consequently, it changed the UK’s geopolitics.

• The UK will pursue a “Global Britain” strategy in the future. This strategy involves signing free trade deals with non-EU countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Oceania, and the Americas.
• As a result, the UK has signed free trade agreements with Singapore, Japan, New Zealand, and Australia.
• On 16 July 2023, the UK joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The CPTPP is a free-trade trade agreement between 11 countries around the Pacific Rim with a combined GDP of $13.5 trillion.
• The UK proactively seeks new trade agreements with countries such as Canada, Singapore, India, the GCC, etc, to diversify its trading partners.
• To strengthen its economy, the UK seeks new trade agreements with countries outside the EU, mainly in Asia and North America.
• The free trade deals are paramount to the UK’s geopolitical landscape, especially in the context of Brexit.

Geopolitical Challenges: Russia

• Relations have been strained due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Salisbury poisonings (2018), and the invasion of Ukraine (2022).
• As a result, the UK has imposed severe sanctions against Russia. These sanctions have targeted Russian companies, oligarchs, and state assets.
• In addition, along with its European & North American allies, the UK is supplying arms to Ukraine and enforcing collective economic and diplomatic measures against Russia.

Geopolitical Challenges: China’s Growing Power

• China is the second and & largest economy worldwide & Indo-Pacific region, respectively.
• China is also the world’s largest trading nation, with trade relations with more than 200 countries and territories worldwide.
• Thus, British companies have considerable interest in China, especially in sectors like financial services.
• However, China’s aggressive actions against Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea have shifted the UK’s policy.
• Overall, China’s influence in global trade and technology (5G, AI, Quantum computing) poses a significant threat to the UK geopolitical landscape.
• Nevertheless, the UK want to balance its economic ties with China with concerns over geopolitical rivalry.

Commonwealth Relations and the Global South

• The UK’s influence within the Commonwealth remains a vital dimension of its foreign policy.
• Although countries in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and the Caribbean still hold strong ties to the UK, the geopolitical landscape is changing.
• Great Powers like Russia, China, and India increasingly compete for influence in the Global South.
• The UK maintains strong diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Commonwealth countries despite the changing geopolitical landscape.

Domestic Geopolitics: Scotland and Northern Ireland

• Scotland: Although Scotland voted to remain in the UK, Brexit reignited calls for independence. The Scottish National Party wants another referendum. They allege that Brexit counters Scotland’s interests because most Scottish voters voted to remain in the EU. Should the SNP succeed in pushing for another referendum, the UK may lose Scotland, which would have profound economic and geopolitical consequences.
• Northern Ireland: Besides Scotland, Brexit significantly impacted Northern Ireland, where a delicate peace established via the Good Friday Agreement (1998) is under pressure.

Technological Competition 

• The UK’s future competitiveness hinges on its ability to innovate in critical areas of science & technology. Thus, it invests in Artificial intelligence, Cybersecurity, Life Sciences, Quantum Computing, 6G, and Fintech.
• Intense competition will emerge from China, the United States, India, Russia, and the European Union.