Unravelling Eurasia’s Geopolitical Landscape

Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape refers to the strategic and political interactions in the vast region spanning Europe and Asia.

Also, Eurasia’s geopolitics has been shaped by a complex interplay of great power / geopolitical competition, regional conflicts, economic integration, shifting alliances, historical tensions, and emerging power dynamics.

Spanning from Europe to the Pacific Ocean, Eurasia has been a crossroads of civilizations and a battleground for empires throughout history.

The region’s importance in global geopolitics stems from its geographical location, bridging major powers like Russia, China, and the European Union. These powers play a vital role in shaping global trade routes, energy flows, and regional security dynamics.

It is home to major powers like China, Russia, India, and the European Union, as well as key energy and trade routes. Great power rivalries, economic integration efforts, and shifting alliances shape the region’s geopolitics.

The war in Ukraine, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, NATO’s expansion, and the growing influence of regional organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are reshaping security and trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Arctic are emerging as key battlegrounds for influence among global powers.

Basic Features About Eurasia’s Geopolitical Landscape

• Largest landmass: Encompasses about 36% of the Earth’s total land area.
• It spans from the Iberian Peninsula in the west to the Russian Far East in the east, and from the Arctic Ocean in the north to Southeast Asia in the south.
• Number of countries: There are 93 independent countries in Eurasia. This includes all 48 countries in Europe, 17 countries in the Middle East, and 27 Asian countries.
• GDP: Eurasia’s GDP is between $50-55 trillion.
• Resources: Crude oil, natural gas, coal, minerals, and metals.
• Population: About 5.3 billion people (2024), about 70% of the world’s population.
• Diverse geography: Mountains, plains, deserts, forests, and coastlines.
• Rich history and culture: Cradle of many civilizations and religions.
• Geopolitical significance: Plays a crucial role in global affairs.
• Geopolitical Competition: Intense competition between major powers, particularly the US, the European Union, Russia, and China, driven by economic interests, strategic positioning, and ideological differences. 
• Historical Rivalries: The region has a long history of conflict (WW1, WW2, Cold War) and competing Empires (Mongol, Greece, Rome, Persia). These conflicts have left deep-rooted tensions and mistrust among nations.
• Regional Conflicts: Eurasia is home to numerous regional conflicts, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and tensions in the South China Sea. These conflicts often have global implications, impacting trade, energy supplies, and security.

Key Geopolitical Actors: Great Power Competition in Eurasia

Eurasia’s Geopolitical Landscape consist of key geopolitical actors including Russia, China, the European Union, and the United States.

Russia

• A major military and nuclear power with significant influence in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and Central Asia.
• Ukraine War: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to Western sanctions, NATO expansion (Sweden & Finland) and shifting global alliances.
• China-Russia Ties: Strengthened economic and military cooperation to counter Western influence in Eurasia.
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization & Eurasian Economic Union: Russia’s effort to consolidate geopolitical & economic influence in Eurasia.
• Foreign Policy: Oil & gas exports to Asia & Europe, military projection (Ukraine & Georgia), Artic militarization.
• Pivot to Asia: Russia is strengthening ties with China, India, and Iran to counterbalance Western economic sanctions.

China

• A growing economic and military power in Eurasia.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Expanding economic influence through infrastructure projects like railways, ports, and pipelines across Eurasia.
• Central Asia Influence: Deepening economic ties with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other post-Soviet states
• South China Sea & Taiwan: A critical issue with global security implications.
• Russia-China Alliance: Growing strategic cooperation in energy, military, and global governance to counter Western influence in the region.

European Union

• A political and economic union of 27 member states and a significant player in Eurasian geopolitics.
• Influence: The EU’s influence is visible in Western, Central, Southern, Northern, and Eastern Europe, as well as in the Caucasus region.
• Russia Sanctions: Strengthened response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Energy Shift: Moving away from Russian gas to alternative sources (Nigeria, US, Algeria, Qatar, Australia).
• EU Enlargement: Potential expansion in the Balkans and Eastern Europe (Georgia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Moldova and Ukraine).
• Security & NATO: Stronger alliance with the US and NATO against Russian aggression.

United States 

• Though not geographically part of Eurasia, the US has deep geopolitical interests in the region
• NATO Expansion: Finland and Sweden joining; bolstering Eastern Europe.
• Support for Ukraine: Military and economic aid.
• Indo-Pacific Strategy: Countering China’s rise especially in the Indo-Pacific region
• Military Presence: Maintain bases in Germany, Poland, South Korea, Japan, and the Middle East to counter and defend allies from threats.
• Foreign Policy: Counter Russian & Chinese influence in Eurasia, promoting democratic governance, protect Allies via NATO, protect vital trade routes to ensure globalization.

Strategic Regions within Eurasia’s Geopolitical Landscape

Eastern Europe

• The region is a battleground for influence between Russia and the Western Power for geopolitical influence.
• The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the Russia-Ukraine war have highlighted the tensions between NATO/EU expansion and Russian efforts to retain influence over its near-abroad.
• Thus, countries like Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova face competing pressures to align with the West or Russia.

Central Asia

• A region of strategic interest to Russia, China, the EU, and the United States.
• Russia seeks to maintain influence through military bases and economic ties.
• China is boosting its presence through the BRI and energy investments.
• The region’s vast natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, make it a valuable geopolitical prize.

The Caucasus

• This region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, is critical for energy transit routes from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
• It is also a zone of frozen conflicts and ethnic tensions, such as those between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s military interventions in Georgia.
• Both the European Union and Russia vie for influence, particularly over energy routes.

The Black Sea & Caspian Sea

• These seas are key zones for energy, security, and military interests.
• The Black Sea, bordered by countries like Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia, is a significant strategic region for NATO and Russia.
• The Caspian Sea is vital for oil and gas reserves and is contested by its littoral states (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan).

Economic and Energy Geopolitics in Eurasia

China’s Economic Corridors and Trade Influence

• Belt & Road Initiative (BRI): The BRI projects, such as ports, pipelines, and railways, strengthen China’s trade dominance from Asia to Africa, the Middle East, and Europe.
• Digital Silk Road: China is exporting technology infrastructure across Eurasia, such as 5G.
• Debt Diplomacy Concerns: Some countries, like Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Kyrgyzstan, fear economic dependence on China due to BRI loans.

Energy Security and Resources

• Eurasia contains some of the world’s largest energy reserves, particularly in Russia, Central Asia, and the Caspian region.
• Control of oil and gas pipelines is critical, with Russia seeking to maintain its dominant position as a European supplier.
• At the same time, Europe looks to diversify its energy sources through pipelines like the Southern Gas Corridor (from Azerbaijan).
• Following Western sanctions, Russia redirected gas exports to China.
• Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, also play a vital role in Eurasian energy markets.
• China also plays a key role as a growing consumer of Central Asian energy. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are major energy suppliers to Europe and China.

Arctic and Northern Sea Route

• Russia’s Arctic Strategy: Moscow is militarizing the Arctic to control future trade routes as ice caps melt.
• China’s Arctic Interests: China calls itself a “Near-Arctic State” and seeks to use the Polar Silk Road for trade.

Key Geopolitical Flashpoints Across Eurasia

Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape is increasingly defined by competition between the U.S. and its allies against China and Russia. At the same time, middle powers like Turkey, India, and Iran seek to assert independent strategies.

Energy security, military alliances, and technological competition further complicate the region’s stability.

Geopolitical flashpoint in Eurasia include:

Great Power Rivalries

• China vs Western Power (US & EU): The US seeks to contain China’s rising power in Eurasia through alliances like AUKUS, the Quad, and NATO’s eastward engagement. China counters with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and deeper ties with Russia, Iran, and Central Asia.
• Russia vs NATO: Russia’s war in Ukraine has strengthened NATO unity. In addition, it has led to NATO expansion to include Finland and Sweden, further heightening tension. At the same time, Moscow seeks to assert influence through energy control, military projection (Ukraine & Georgia), and alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• China-Russia Partnership: Despite asymmetries, their strategic alignment challenges Western dominance with cooperation in energy, trade, and military exercises.

Ukraine War

• NATO & EU Backing: Economic and military aid to Ukraine.
• Russia’s Objectives: Land control, NATO deterrence, regime influence.
• Global Consequences: Energy crises, inflation, food security concerns.
• Ukraine-Russia Conflict: The war has reshaped security dynamics, with Ukraine seeking Western support. At the same time, Russia has intensified its military-industrial mobilization. It is also seeking support from China, North Korea, and Iran.
• Ukraine’s Role: A key battleground in the Russia-West confrontation. The war has reshaped European security policies, leading to increased defense spending under the NATO framework.

The Caucasus

• Caucasus Instability: Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh persist.
• Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, has gained military advantages, while Russia’s traditional role as a mediator weakens.
• Turkey’s Role: Backing Azerbaijan.
• Iran’s Interest: Tehran fears rising Turkish influence and Azerbaijan’s potential impact on its ethnic Azeri population.
• Russia’s Diminished Influence: Losing Grip post-Ukraine war, Turkey filling the vacuum.
• NATO and EU’s Eastern Expansion: Moldova and Georgia seek deeper integration with the EU and NATO, increasing tensions with Russia.
• Frozen conflict in Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Central Asia

• Economic Dependence on Russia & China: Gas exports, Belt and Road investments.
• Security Concerns: Islamist extremism, border tensions, Afghanistan
• Central Asia’s Balancing Act: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and others engage China, Russia, Turkey, and the West to maintain strategic autonomy.
• Russia’s Waning Control: Central Asian states are diversifying their economic ties, engaging more with China, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States.
• China’s Economic Dominance: Through BRI, China invests in energy pipelines, roads, and railways, reducing Russian influence.
• Turkey’s Growing Role: Ankara promotes the Organization of Turkic States to expand its soft power in Central Asia.

The Middle East’s Strategic Position in Eurasia

• Iran’s Pivot to China and Russia: Under US sanctions, Iran strengthens ties with Eurasian powers (Russia & China) by joining BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Nuclear tensions exist between Iran and the West.
• Turkey’s Role: As a NATO member, Turkey balances ties between the West, Russia, and China while pursuing its independent regional agenda.
• Energy Geopolitics: The Caspian region and Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and others) play critical roles in global energy security.

South Asia & Indo-Pacific

• India-China Tensions: Border disputes, India’s opposition to China’s BRI and strategic competition shaping South Asian geopolitics.
• US-India-Japan-Australia (Quad) vs China: The Quad alliance seeks to counterbalance China’s Indo-Pacific ambitions.
• China’s Indo-Pacific ambitions: Belt and Road Initiative, trade & investment military & navy presence across the region, South China Sea Claims Taiwan.
• Border Disputes: India-China tensions over the Himalayan region persist, with military clashes in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Also, India-Pakistan tension exist over the Kashmir region.
• Pakistan’s Role: A close ally of China, Pakistan remains a key part of BRI but struggles with internal instability. These include corruption, foreign debt, Islamic extremism, unemployment, energy crisis and others.

The Arctic & Northern Trade Routes

• Russia’s Arctic Expansion: Melting ice opens new shipping lanes, with Russia militarizing the Arctic while China eyes trade opportunities.
• NATO’s Arctic Focus: As Finland and Sweden join NATO, Arctic tensions rise over military and resource competition.

Strategic Alliances and Security Organizations

The Eurasia geopolitical landscape consists of military and trade alliances by major powers that defend their economic and geopolitical interests. These Eurasia alliances include:

NATO’s Eurasian Expansion

• Key Members: The US, the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Turkey
• Increased Defense Budgets: European nations have ramped up military spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Partnerships in Asia: NATO is strengthening ties with Japan, South Korea, and Australia to counter China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Expansion: Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) joined NATO, bolstering the military alliance.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

• China and Russia’s Security Bloc: An alternative security framework to NATO.
• Key Members: China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Central Asian states focusing on security, political, and economic cooperation.

BRICS

• China-Led Economic Group: BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is evolving into an alternative to Western financial institutions (G7, G20, World Bank, IMF).
• Key Objectives: Pushing for a multipolar global order.
• Long-term Plans: New Members, New Development Bank, promote DE dollarization, foster a multipolar world order.

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)

• Russia-led trade bloc: Members include Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan.
• Common Market: It operates as a single market with a standard external tariff and harmonized regulations. Thus, economic sovereignty is reduced by binding economies together.
• Constraints: Russia’s dominance with the EAEU, other competitions such as the China Belt & Road Initiative, and the European Union.

Collective Security Treaty Organization

• Russia dominates this military alliance, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan from Central Asia.
• The CSTO provides security guarantees to member states, particularly in cases of external aggression.
• It provides a platform for security cooperation, joint military exercises, and Russia’s influence on the defence policies of member states.

Current Geopolitical Trends in Eurasia

• Russia-Ukraine War: The conflict has significantly altered Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape, raising tensions between Russia and the West.
• China’s Rise: China’s growing economic and military power also reshapes Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape. Its Belt & Road Initiative aims to enhance connectivity across Eurasia. At the same time, its territorial claims regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea have sparked tensions with the US and other regional powers.
• Energy Security: Eurasia is a major oil and gas exporter, supplying energy to various regions, mainly Europe and Asia. Russia, Kazakhstan, and other Eurasian countries are among the world’s leading oil & gas producers. Pipelines and supply routes have become a source of geopolitical competition, with countries vying for control over these strategic producers and their upstream assets.
• European Union’s Role: The European Union plays a significant role in Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape. This political and economic union of 27 European member states promote political & economic integration. However, Brexit, slow economic growth, and others have weakened its influence in recent years.
• West-China Decoupling: The world may see increased economic fragmentation as Western companies reduce reliance on China’ supply chain.
• Central Asia’s Growing importance: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could emerge as independent regional powers balancing Russia, the United States, the European Union, and China.
• Multipolarity and New Alliances: Emerging powers like India, Turkey, and Iran will shape a more complex Eurasian order.
• Russia’s Assertiveness: Russia has sought to reassert its influence in its near abroad and beyond, through alliances (SCO, BRICS),and war in Ukraine. However, prolonged sanctions and military spending have slightly weaken Russia’s global influence.