The Hidden Forces of Russia’s Influence in Central Asia

This enables Moscow to maintain strategic control over the region while countering surging Western and Chinese influence.

Hidden Forces of Russian Influence in Central Asia

While China’s economic influence in Central Asia has surpassed Russia’s, Moscow still holds strategic control through hidden but powerful levers.

Thus ensuring that Central Asia remains within its sphere of influence. These levers include history, economic, security, politics, and cultural ties.

Here are the key hidden forces shaping Russian influence in the region:

Historical and Cultural Ties

• Russian Language: Russian remains widely spoken in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Thus demonstrating Russia’s influence in Central Asia.
• Migration: Many Central Asians, mainly from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, migrate to Russia for work. Consequently, the workers remit some of their wages & salaries earned to their home economies.
• Soviet Legacy: The Soviet Union’s almost 70-year rule (1922-1991) left a lasting legacy and influence on Central Asia. These include a shared language (Russian), economic interdependence, and cultural ties.
• Post-Soviet Realignment: Following the Soviet Union’s demise, Russia desires to maintain its influence in Central Asia. However, it faces intense competition from China, the United States, the European Union, and other middle powers.

Political and Diplomatic Ties

Russia maintains close ties with Central Asian ruling elites, using personal connections, corruption, and diplomatic pressure to influence decision-making.

Leadership Relations

• Russia maintains close ties with Central Asian leaders and business elites.
• Moscow cultivates ties through diplomatic, economic, business, financial, and intelligence channels.
• The Kremlin support pro-Kremlin politicians and oligarchs, ensuring that leaders remain aligned with Russian interests.
• Central Asian leaders maintain close ties with Russia due to their Soviet-era backgrounds.

Election Interference and Opposition Suppression

• Russia provides electoral support for pro-Kremlin candidates via meddling in elections using cyberspace.
• Also, they back politicians and business figures who align with Russian interests, providing financial and strategic support.

Influence in Regional Organizations

• Russia, along with China, leads and shapes regional organizations like the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to influence Central Asia’s geopolitics.

Economic Influence

Russia’s economic influence in Central Asia is a critical tool for exerting influence. This includes control over energy infrastructure, trade policies, Labour migration, and financial dependencies.

Energy Resources

• • Russia and Central Asia (especially Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) are rich in oil, gas, and other natural resources.
  • However, due to geography, as Central Asia is landlocked, Russia controls the critical pipelines that export oil & gas from Central Asia to European markets. Thus, Russia’s influence in Central Asia’s economy
  • Key Pipelines: Central Asia–Centre (CAC) Gas Pipeline System, Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Atayrau-Samara pipeline
  • Pricing: Moscow utilizes gas pricing as leverage over Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan, pressuring them to align with Russian economic policies.

Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Influence

• Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are members of this Russian-led trade bloc.
• Other members include Armenia and Belarus. Observers members include Cuba, Iran, Moldova, and Uzbekistan.
• Common Market: It operates as a single market with a common external tariff and harmonized regulations. Thus, reducing economic sovereignty by binding their economies together.
• Constraints: Russia’s dominance with the EAEU, other competitions such as China Belt & Road Initiative, and the European Union.

Financial Control

• Debt Diplomacy: Russia’s influence in Central Asia includes providing loans and financial assistance through state-owned banks. Consequently, it creates debt traps for recipient Central Asian nations, giving Moscow undue influence over their economic and political decisions.
• Ruble in Regional Economies: After the USSR collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries introduced their own national currencies. However, due to close economic ties with Russia, the ruble continued to play a role in trade and remittances. However, geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West can also affect using the ruble in Central Asia.

Labour Migration and Remittances

• Millions of Central Asian migrant workers (primarily from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) work in Russia and send back remittances that account for a significant portion of their home countries’ GDP, Thus making Russia’s labour market essential for the economic stability of countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
• Leverage: Russia can influence these Central Asian countries by threats of stricter visa regulations, deportation of migrants, or introducing new work permit laws to pressure Central Asian governments into compliance.

Military and Security Cooperation

Russia influences Central Asia by positioning itself as the primary security guarantor in the region. Moscow achieves this via CSTO, military bases, and arms supplies to maintain influence.

Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russia’s NATO equivalent)

• Russia dominates this military alliance, which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan from Central Asia.
• The CSTO provides security guarantees to member states, particularly in cases of external aggression.
• It provides a platform for security cooperation, joint military exercises, and Russia’s influence on the defence policies of member states
• Example: In 2022, Russia deployed CSTO troops to stabilize Kazakhstan during anti-government protests, reinforcing Russia’s influence in Central Asia.

Military Bases and Arms Sales

• Military Presence: Russia maintains military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to fight extremism and maintain geopolitical influence in Central Asia
• Russian Military Bases in Central Asia:
  • Kant Air Base (Kyrgyzstan)
  • 201st Military Base (Tajikistan)
• Arms Dependency: Russia supplies weapons at discounted rates or through credit schemes, keeping Central Asian militaries reliant on Russian hardware.

FSB and GRU Activities in Central Asia

• Russian intelligence agencies operate in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
• They monitor opposition groups, foreign diplomats, and dissidents
• Also, they influence elections in Central Asia, monitor potential insurgencies and radical Islamist movements, and counter Western or Chinese influence.

Cyber and Information Warfare

• Russia engages in cyber operations to shape narratives, discredit pro-Western voices, and maintain control over political discourse in the region.
• Intelligence agencies use Troll farms and bot networks to shape public opinions in Central Asia.

Border Security

• Russia assists Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in securing their borders against Afghan threats, strengthening its security role in the region.

Russia controls much of the information landscape in Central Asia, using media, education, and cultural narratives to maintain influence.

Russian Media Domination

• State-controlled TV channels (RT, Sputnik, Russia-24) broadcast pro-Kremlin narratives in Russian-speaking Central Asia.
• Russian social media platforms (like VK and Telegram) spread pro-Russian narratives.

Russian Orthodox Church

• Moscow uses the church to maintain influence, particularly in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Education and Cultural Programs

• Russian universities offer scholarships to Central Asian students, and the Russian Orthodox Church plays a role in influencing cultural ties, particularly in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Balancing China and the West

Russia seeks to limit Western and Chinese influence in Central Asia while maintaining regional dominance.

Undermining Western Engagement

• Russia usually pressures Central Asian states to reject Western military cooperation and economic partnerships.
• Example: Russia discouraged Kazakhstan from hosting Western military exercises.

Containing China’s Influence

• While China is economically dominant in Central Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Russia remains the primary security provider.
• Moscow works to limit China’s military and intelligence activities in the region.

Influence of Other Powers

• China: China’s growing economic presence in Central Asia, mainly through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is challenging Russia’s economic dominance. While Russia remains the primary security provider, China is now the leading investor and trade partner for many Central Asian states.
• Türkiye: Türkiye is building ties with Central Asia, leveraging cultural and linguistic connections, particularly with Turkic-speaking countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
• Western Powers: The influence of the United States and European countries has dwindled in recent years but remains present through investments, diplomacy, and development aid.

Geopolitical Shifts

• War in Ukraine: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has complicated its ties with Central Asia. While these countries have not supported Western sanctions, they have also refrained from openly backing Russia, showing signs of greater independence and exploring more diversified foreign policies. For example, Kazakhstan has been seeking closer ties with China, Türkiye, and Europe to reduce over-reliance on Russia.