Exploring Russia-China Alliance in 2024

The Russia-China strategic alliance in 2024 consisted of growing geopolitical dynamics emphasizing closer economic, military, and diplomatic cooperation.

The shared desire to challenge US dominance and Western influence in international affairs mainly drove the strategic alliance.

Here are the detailed components of their collaboration:

Russia-China Alliance: Geopolitical Alignment 2024

• Counterbalance to Western Powers (the United States & European Union): Both Russia and China, in 2023, positioned their alliance as a counterweight to Western-led order.
  • These orders include: Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, AUKUS, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue & Five Eyes
• Support for Alternatives: Russia and China promoted emerging organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS as alternatives to Western-centric institutions.

Economic Relations

The Russia-China alliance in 2024 has led to closer economic, military, and diplomatic cooperation.

• Trade. In 2023, bilateral trade between Russia and China totalled $240 billion. By October 2024, trade had reached $202.2 billion. Thus, trade volume may surpass $250 billion. Both countries aim to increase trade to $300 billion annually by 2030.
  • Key exports from Russia: crude oil, natural gas, agricultural products (wheat, soybeans), and raw materials​.
  • Key exports from China: Electronics, vehicles, machinery, high-tech equipment, and consumer goods.
• Energy Exports: Russia is a significant supplier of oil and gas to China. Since the West imposed sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, China has become Russia’s largest customer for energy.
  • Oil: China is Russia’s largest oil buyer. It accounts for nearly 20% of China’s total imports. In 2023, Russia’s crude oil exports were 107.02 million metric tons at $60.7 billion. In 2024, it may hit 200 million metric tons.
  • Gas: The Power of Siberia pipeline, operational since 2019, delivers 38 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) of gas annually. In 2023, it delivered 22.7 BCM of gas and about 30 BCM in 2024. The planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline will deliver another 50 BCM annually.
  • Coal: Russia is a major thermal and coking coal supplier to China.
  • Nuclear Energy: Collaboration includes joint development of nuclear power projects in China, including Tianwan and Xudapu nuclear power plants.
• Yuan as a Trade Currency: With sanctions limiting Russia’s access to the US Dollar and Euro, the use of the Chinese Yuan in bilateral trade grew in 2024. About 92% of trade settlements between Russia and China occurred with the Yuan.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Russia supports China’s BRI projects. Some include the Amur-Heilongjiang Bridge, Polar Silk Road, Eurasian Land Bridge, and Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline.

Military and Security Cooperation

The Russia-China alliance in 2024 will consist of deepening military ties to secure their interests in Eurasia, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Arctic region.

• Arms Sales: Russia has been a critical supplier of military equipment to China. These weapons include S-400 missile defence systems, Anti-ship missiles, and SU-35 fighter jets. However, China has developed its own military-industrial complex and is less dependent on Russian weapons.
• Joint Military Exercises: China and Russia conduct joint military exercises regularly. Some of these exercises include “Vostok, Zapad, and Tsentr”, “Ocean-2024”, “North-Joint 2024”, and “Joint Sea” in the Pacific and the Arctic.
• Arctic Strategy: They collaborate on Arctic development, with Russia granting China access to its Arctic resources and shipping routes.
• Intelligence Sharing: Reports suggest limited intelligence sharing, primarily around cybersecurity and counterterrorism.
• This military cooperation serves as a message to Western countries, particularly the US and NATO, about their ability to coordinate militarily.

Technology

• The Russian and Chinese alliance also include cooperation in technology, such as artificial intelligence and cybersecurity.
• Also, Chinese companies, such as Huawei, provide 5G technology and telecommunications equipment to Russia.
• Russia faces increasing Western sanctions, especially on high-tech goods and semiconductors. Thus, it has turned to China for technology solutions.
• The two countries are also working on joint space exploration projects, including plans for a lunar research station.
• Digital Currency and Finance: Russia and China are exploring alternatives to the SWIFT international payment system. At the same time, they are promoting the use of their national currencies (Yuan and ruble) in bilateral trade.

Geopolitical Context

• Ukraine War: China maintains a neutral perspective publicly but provides Russia with diplomatic and economic aid, refusing to condemn its actions while promoting peace initiatives.
• Asia-Pacific Tensions: Both oppose the US-led alliances such as AUKUS and reinforce each other’s positions regarding Taiwan (China) and NATO expansion (Russia).
• BRICS and SCO: Both countries play leading roles in forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, promoting alternatives to Western-led economic and security structures.
• Xi-Putin Relations: Personal camaraderie between President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin is solid. They have been underscored through frequent state visits and summits.
• US Military Presence: Their shared opposition to the expansion of NATO and US military presence in their respective regions, particularly in Europe and the Asia-Pacific, has brought them closer together
• Both countries prioritize regional stability and counterterrorism, particularly concerning Central Asia and Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. Both countries are concerned about extremism and separatism affecting their borders (China’s concerns in Xinjiang and Russia’s in the Caucasus).
• United Nations: Russia and China frequently coordinate in the UN Security Council, where both hold veto power, to counter the West. As permanent members of the UN Security Council, they use their veto power on issues related to their allies like Syria, North Korea, and Iran.

Russia and China Alliance: Challenges and Limitations

• Border Dispute: Historical mistrust over territorial disputes lingers despite improved relations.
• Central Asia Rivalry: Russia and China compete for influence in Central Asia. While Russia views Central Asia as its backyard and sphere of influence, China views it as a vital partner regarding its Belt & Road Initiative.
• Asymmetry in Relations: China’s economic and technological dominance has created an imbalance. Russia is increasingly considered a junior partner with heavy economic dependency on China.
• China’s Economic Interest with the West: Despite their cooperation, the relationship is not a formal military alliance. China and Russia prioritize their economic interests, which can lead to divergences. For example, China continues to maintain trade interests with the US & Europe by not openly supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
• Alliance of Convenience: Russia and China’s alliance is described as an alliance of “convenience,” with each nation leveraging the relationship to counter Western pressure while avoiding a deep partnership, as seen in NATO
• Caution on Ukraine: China has been cautious in its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While it has refrained from openly condemning Russia and has helped economically by purchasing oil and gas, Beijing has not provided direct military support, preferring to avoid Western sanctions and protect its global trade relationships.

Conclusion

China-Russia relations are built on strategic cooperation in energy, trade, military coordination, and opposition to Western dominance. Both countries see value in presenting a united front against the US and its allies.

However, underlying tensions exist, particularly regarding the growing economic power imbalance and competition for influence in regions like Central Asia. While the partnership is strong, it is pragmatic and driven by necessity, with each country seeking to protect its national interests.