China’s Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region include strategic, economic, and military efforts to expand its power and establish dominance across the Indian & Pacific Oceans. The Indo-Pacific, stretching from the eastern coast of Africa to the Pacific Islands, is a crucial geopolitical zone where China seeks to expand its influence. The region has critical trade routes, emerging markets, and key maritime chokepoints.
Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s geopolitical ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region encompass economic expansion, military influence, and geopolitical dominance.
- Economic Expansion: Strengthening trade, investment, and infrastructure development, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative.
- Military Influence: Expanding naval capabilities, increasing military presence in the South China Sea, and forming security partnerships.
- Geopolitical Dominance: Gain and maintain dominance of the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan, and Line of Actual Control (tension with India)
Geopolitical Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s geopolitical ambitions include challenging the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, securing vital trade routes, and expanding regional diplomatic ties.
Challenging US Indo-Pacific Ambitions:
China sees US alliances (QUAD, AUKUS, and US military bases in the region) as containment efforts. As such, China is boosting ties with Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Southeast Asian nations to counter Western coalitions. Also, China frequently challenges US naval operations in the South China Sea. Thus, China’s Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific are to boost ties with Russia and others to counter the US in the region.
South China Sea Dominance:
China’s Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific include securing control of the South China Sea. This vital strategic waterway connects the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. This is crucial for trade-dependent countries like Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.
- Importance: Over $5 trillion worth of global trade passes through the SCS, contains 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and supports over 12% of global fishery
- Sovereignty Disputes: China claims nearly 90% of the South China Sea under its “Nine-Dash Line”, leading to tensions with Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan.
- Militarization of artificial islands: China has constructed runways, missile systems, and naval bases on reefs and islands in the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos. Regular confrontations with navies and coast guards of Philippine and Vietnamese vessels.
- Frequent naval patrols and airspace incursions intimidate regional states and assert Chinese control.
East China Sea Dominance:
China’s Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific include securing control of the East China Sea, another vital strategic waterway. The East China Sea connects the South China Sea to the Pacific Ocean, making it a central global trade shipping corridor for China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
- Importance: It is a vital maritime corridor that supports large-scale fishing industries. It also serves as a natural buffer for China’s economic hubs, such as Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan.
- Disputed Territories: The ECS is home to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute between China and Japan, leading to frequent naval standoffs involving incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels.
- China’s Naval Expansion: The East China Sea is a key operational area for China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy, which seeks to project power beyond its maritime waters. China, Japan, the US and Taiwan regularly conduct military exercises, highlighting the ECS as a zone of strategic competition.
- Air Defense Identification Zone: In 2013, China declared an ADIZ over parts of the ECS, requiring foreign aircraft to identify themselves.
Control Taiwan:
China’s Ambition in the Indo-Pacific is to control Taiwan. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland. At the same time, Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state with its own government, military, and democratic system. As such, Beijing asserts that there is only one China and pressures countries and organizations to recognize Taiwan as part of China. Frequent military drills, airspace violations, and cyber operations around Taiwan serve as intimidation tactics.
Taiwan is situated at the edge of the South China Sea’s shipping lanes. It is 100 miles off the coast of China, 200 miles from the Philippines to the south, 700 miles from Japan, 900 miles from Vietnam, and less than 1000 miles from the Spratly Islands.
China sees Taiwan as one of the critical links in the so-called “first island chain“ that includes Japan, the Ryukyu Islands, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia. The First Island Chain is a natural defence barrier for China against the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, if China controls Taiwan, it will expand its naval reach into the Indo-Pacific, challenging US dominance. Thus, China’s ambition in the Indo-Pacific is to unify itself with Taiwan.
Taiwan produces over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and 90% of the most advanced chips (TSMC—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). Thus, controlling Taiwan would give China a technological and economic advantage.
Gain influence in the South Pacific Region:
China’s Ambition in the Indo-Pacific is to gain influence in the South Pacific Region. The South Pacific is the southern Pacific Ocean, including the island nations, territories, and regions. It extends from Australia and New Zealand in the west to the eastern Pacific islands near South America. The region is divided into three significant sub-regions:
- Melanesia (Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu)
- Polynesia (Samoa, Tonga, Cook Islands, French Polynesia)
- Micronesia (partially included, but mainly in the North Pacific)
Why Does China Want the South Pacific?
- Geopolitical & Strategic Influence: China wants to counter the US and Australia’s regional influence. Gian influence in the South Pacific is part of China’s strategy of building alliances worldwide. For Instance, China has persuaded the Solomon Islands (2019) and Kiribati (2019) to cut ties with Taiwan and recognize Beijing. Four Pacific nations still recognize Taiwan (Tuvalu, Nauru, Palau, and Marshall Islands).
- Potential Military Bases: A base would give China a strategic outpost near Australia and the US territories (Guam).
- Natural Resources: The region has rich timber, fisheries, and minerals.
- Vital Trade route: The South Pacific is a crucial maritime trade route connecting Asia, the Americas, and Australia.
Maintain Interest in the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – Border with India
China’s Ambition in the Indo-Pacific is to sustain its influence in the Line of Actual Control border dispute with India. The Line of Actual Control is the de facto border between China and India, traversing 3,488 km across Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh. While not formally demarcated, it remains a source of ongoing military tensions.
China’s Interest in LAC
- Strategic & Military Importance: Controlling high-altitude areas (Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh) enhances China’s defense and surveillance capabilities. China has built extensive military infrastructure, roads, and airbases in Aksai Chin and Tibet, allowing rapid troop deployment.
- Weakening India’s Strategic Position: By keeping the LAC tense, China forces India to divert military resources to focus on land defense. Consequently, it reduces India’s influence in maritime security (Indian Ocean, Malacca Strait, Andaman Sea).
- Diplomatic Leverage: China uses LAC tensions to pressure India in broader geopolitical negotiations, such as trade, BRICS, and global governance issues.
Economic Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s economic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific are to expand trade networks, secure supply chains, and counter US influence Through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Expansion:
China’s economic ambition in the Indo-Pacific involves countering US influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiatives. The BRI is China’s flagship project, financing and building ports, railways, highways, and pipelines in the Indo-Pacific region. It’s a way to secure access to resources, markets, and strategic locations. Key infrastructure projects include:
- Gwadar Port (Pakistan): China’s access point to the Arabian Sea.
- Hambantota Port (Sri Lanka): Leased to China for 99 years after debt issues.
- Kyaukpyu Port (Myanmar): A key part of China’s plan to bypass the Malacca Strait.
- Djibouti Naval Base: China’s first overseas military base to secure shipping routes.
Trade and Economic Leverage:
Another of China’s economic ambitions is to deepen its economic ties across the Indo-Pacific through free trade agreements and regional trade blocs. These agreements and blocs boost China’s trade and expand its economic influence.
Country | FTA | Key Benefits for China |
| Pakistan | 2006 (upgraded in 2019) | Strengthens China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), increases trade in textiles and energy. |
| New Zealand | 2008 (upgraded in 2022) | Increases trade in dairy and food products, strengthens China’s agricultural supply chain. |
| Singapore | 2009 | Enhances financial sector cooperation, boosts Singapore’s role as China’s regional financial hub. |
| South Korea | 2015 | Strengthens China’s role in electronics and automotive supply chains. |
| Australia | 2015 | Boosts China’s access to Australian iron ore, coal, and agricultural products. |
| Maldives | 2017 | Expands China’s influence in the Indian Ocean, boosts tourism and seafood exports. |
| Cambodia | 2022 | Strengthens China’s infrastructure projects and garment trade. |
Trade Bloc Influence – Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP):
China is the largest trading partner for most Indo-Pacific nations. Through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, it seeks to replace the US as the leading trade partner in the region. China is dominant in the RCEP across the Indo-Pacific, using it to expand its economic influence, enhance trade partnerships, and counter Western economic strategies.
Facts about Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
- Signed: 2020 | Came into Effect: 2022
- Members: 15 countries
- ASEAN (10 nations): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
- Other members include China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.
- GDP coverage: Over $26.3 trillion (about 30% of global GDP).
- Population coverage: 2.3 billion people (about 30% of the world’s population).
- Trade impact: Covers $12.7 trillion (about 28% of global trade).
Benefits of RCEP for China & Other Members
- Strengthens China’s Economic Leadership:
- The largest trade bloc without US involvement allows China to fulfil its economic ambition to dominate Indo-Pacific trade.
- Deepens trade with ASEAN, now China’s largest trading partner.
- Reduces reliance on the west, securing supply chains within Asia.
- Boosts Regional Trade & Investment
- Reduces tariffs on 91% of traded goods, boosting China’s exports.
- Creates a Unified Asian Supply Chain
- Enhances cooperation in electronics, automotive, textiles, and agriculture.
- Strengthens China’s role in regional supply chains, especially in electronics, automotive, and manufacturing, reducing dependence on Western markets.
Challenges & Criticisms of RCEP
- India withdrew in 2019, fearing an influx of cheap Chinese goods.
- Geopolitical tensions: China’s disputes with Australia, Japan, and ASEAN nations in the South China Sea could affect long-term cooperation.
Promote its Digital Silk Road across the Indo-Pacific Region:
China’s economic ambition in the Indo-Pacific involves promoting its Digital Silk Road, a key part of its Belt and Road Initiative. It focuses on digital infrastructure, telecommunications, and technology cooperation.
Objectives of China’s Digital Silk Road in the Indo-Pacific
- Expand China’s Technological Influence: Increase the global reach of Chinese telecom giants like Huawei and ZTE.
- Strengthen Digital Connectivity: Improve internet access, cloud computing, and e-commerce platforms in Indo-Pacific nations.
- Enhance Surveillance & AI Cooperation: Promote facial recognition, data analytics, and smart city technologies developed by Chinese firms.
- Secure Strategic Control Over Data Flow: Develop and control the region’s critical submarine cable routes and data centres.
- Facilitate E-Commerce and Digital Finance: Encourage the adoption of platforms like Alibaba, Tencent, and WeChat Pay.
Key Projects and Investments in the Indo-Pacific
- Huawei & ZTE’s 5G Expansion: Despite US sanctions, Huawei and ZTE have built 5G networks in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
- Smart Cities & Surveillance Tech: China has deployed AI-powered surveillance and smart city technologies in places like Jakarta (Indonesia), Colombo (Sri Lanka), and Manila (Philippines).
- Peace Cable: A major undersea fibre-optic cable project connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe via the Indian Ocean.
- Hong Kong-Guam Submarine Cable System: A key data route connecting China with Pacific nations.
- Alibaba & JD.com in Southeast Asia: Investments in platforms like Lazada (Southeast Asia) and partnerships with fintech firms in Singapore and Indonesia.
- WeChat Pay & Alipay Growth: Chinese digital payment systems expanding in Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
- Beidou Navigation Satellite System: China’s alternative to GPS is being promoted in Indonesia, Pakistan, and Australia.
- Satellites for Smart Agriculture & Maritime Surveillance: China has launched satellites for climate monitoring, oceanography, and disaster management.
Promote the use of the Yuan:
China’s economic ambition in the Indo-Pacific region involves promoting the use of the Yuan. China has signed currency swap agreements with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand to facilitate trade in Yuan. Due to Western sanctions on Russia, the Yuan has become a key currency for trade between the two nations. With China as ASEAN’s largest trading partner, the use of the Yuan in trade has been rising, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. Many Indo-Pacific countries receiving Chinese infrastructure loans under BRI, including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Laos, are repaying in Yuan instead of dollars. Laos recently agreed to use the Yuan for railway-related trade with China. China’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System is an alternative to SWIFT for global transactions in Yuan. Several Indo-Pacific banks have joined CIPS. This infrastructure supports the broader use of the Yuan in international trade and finance.
Expanding Influence of Alternative Non-Western Multilateral Organizations
China actively promotes organizations like BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as alternatives to Western-led institutions like the G7, NATO, and the World Bank/IMF. This effort is part of its broader strategy to counterbalance the US influence in the region.
- BRICS: China sees BRICS as a way to reshape global governance and shift away from Western dominance. As a result, it supports BRICS expansion, bringing in countries like Egypt, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Ethiopia to increase its influence.
- Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Originally a China-Russia-led security bloc, the SCO has expanded to include India, Pakistan, and Iran. It is a counter to NATO and the US-led alliances in Asia. China uses the SCO to promote joint military drills and expand its Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia.
- Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Established by China in 2015, the AIIB offers funding for global infrastructure projects, reducing reliance on Western financial institutions like the World Bank. Many AIIB projects align with China’s BRI, reinforcing its economic expansion in Eurasia. With over 100 member countries, including European nations, the AIIB has become a powerful tool for China’s financial diplomacy.
China’s Military Ambitions in the Indo-Pacific Region
China’s military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific are driven by its goal of establishing strong deterrence against the US Navy, securing maritime access, expanding its naval reach, and protecting its economic interests, including the Belt and Road Initiative. Thus, China is rapidly modernizing its navy, establishing military alliances, and militarizing the South China Sea to achieve this ambition.
Expanding the PLAN Naval Dominance:
China is rapidly modernizing its navy with aircraft carriers, advanced missile systems, destroyers, and nuclear submarines to project power across the Indo-Pacific region. These weapons will enable China to achieve its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy, which seeks to prevent US Forces from operating freely in the region.
Key Chinese Weapons
- Aircraft carriers:
- Liaoning (CV-16): China’s first carrier, used for training.
- Shandong (CV-17): First domestically built carrier.
- Fujian (CV-18): A third, more advanced carrier with electromagnetic launch systems.
- Naval Ships: China is building amphibious assault capabilities, including:
- Type 075: China’s largest amphibious assault ship designed to transport troops, vehicles, and aircraft for expeditionary warfare.
- Type 055 large destroyers: Designed for multi-role naval warfare, including air defense, anti-ship, anti-submarine, and land-attack missions.
- Ballistic Missiles: China has developed a powerful missile arsenal
- DF-21D: Anti-ship ballistic missile designed to destroy US aircraft carriers and significant naval assets in the Indo-Pacific region.
- DF-26: Intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of striking both land and naval targets, including US aircraft carriers and military bases in the Indo-Pacific region.
- DF-41: Advanced intercontinental ballistic missile designed for long-range nuclear deterrence and strike.
- Nuclear Submarines: Type 094 (Jin-class) & Type 096 (Tang-class) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine
- Strengthens China’s nuclear triad alongside land-based ICBMs (DF-41, DF-31AG) and future H-20 stealth bombers.
- Provides long-range nuclear strike capability, primarily targeting the US, India, and other potential adversaries.
- Improves China’s second-strike capability, making its nuclear deterrence more credible.
Naval Base Expansion in the Indo-Pacific Region:
China’s military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific are to establish a naval base across the region via its String of Pearls Strategy. The “String of Pearls“ is China’s strategic attempt to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean region by developing a military and commercial facilities network from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa. Given its significant reliance on imported oil from the Gulf region and Africa, the strategy is seen as a means for China to secure its maritime trade routes and energy supplies. By creating these facilities, China aims to protect its economic interests and ensure the safety of its shipping lanes. These shipping lanes include strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Mandeb, and the Lombok Strait.
Key “String of Pearls“ Bases and Facilities
- Gwadar Port (Balochistan, Pakistan): A key part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
- Provides China with direct access to the Arabian Sea.
- Reduces reliance on the Strait of Malacca for energy imports.
- Potential for future Chinese naval presence.
- Hambantota Port (Sri Lanka):
- Located near major shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean.
- Serves as a key logistics and refuelling point for Chinese ships
- Kyaukpyu Port (Rakhine State, Myanmar):
- Provides China with direct access to the Bay of Bengal.
- It is part of a corridor for oil and gas pipelines from Myanmar to China, allowing it to bypass the Malacca Strait.
- Djibouti Naval Base (Djibouti, Near the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, East Africa)
- China’s overseas military base has been operational since 2017.
- Supports China’s naval operations in the Indian Ocean.
Militarization of the South China Sea:
China’s military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific include militarising the South China Sea. The Chinese military exercises in the South China Sea to assert its influence. China has also built military bases on artificial islands in the Spratly (Fiery Cross, Subi, & Mischief Reefs) and Paracel Islands to control SCS waters.
These bases have airstrips, fighter jets (J-20 & J-31), missile systems (ASBMs & SAMs), and radar stations. Given that 80% of China’s oil imports and 40% of global trade pass through the South China Sea, which has 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, China seeks to control this vital sea route.
Strengthening Military Alliances & Partnerships:
China has increased military cooperation, arms sales, and joint exercises with regional partners, including Pakistan, Russia, Myanmar, Cambodia & Laos. In addition, China is courting Pacific Island nations to build military and security agreements.
China-Pakistan Military Cooperation
China is Pakistan’s largest arms supplier, providing fighter jets (JF-17), naval ships, and missile technology.
- Joint military exercises, including the Sea Guardians naval drills.
- Collaboration on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has strategic military implications.
China-Russia Cooperation
China and Russia have a “no-limits partnership“ but no formal military alliance.
- Regular joint military drills (Vostok).
- Russia supplies China with advanced military technology, including the S-400 missile system and Su-35 fighter jets.
- Growing coordination in the Indo-Pacific, including joint naval patrols.
China-Cambodia Military Relations
Cambodia is one of China’s closest security partners in Southeast Asia.
- Major infrastructure projects, including Ream Naval Base upgrades, allow potential Chinese military access.
- Joint military exercises, such as Golden Dragon.
Other cooperation: Myanmar, North Korea, Laos, and Solomon Islands.
Diplomatic and Soft Power Engagement
China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific include expanding its diplomatic and soft power engagement across the region. China is achieving this by increasing its Chinese-language media presence across Asia and the Pacific to promote pro-China narratives.
Chinese TV news channels CCTV-4 and the English-language CGTN operate in nearly every country in the region. At the same time, China Radio International airs multilingual content in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar.
Another means China uses is the expansion of Confucius Institutes across the region. Established in 2004, Confucius Institutes aim to promote Chinese language and culture globally. By 2023, there were 496 CIs across 160 countries, with 143 in Asia. These institutes facilitate educational and cultural exchanges in the Indo-Pacific, enhancing China’s soft power.
Another means is via TikTok. Despite bans in some Western countries, TikTok has experienced substantial growth in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2023, this area, home to nearly 60% of the world’s social network users, saw TikTok as the fastest-growing social platform. Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have significantly contributed to its expanding user base, underscoring the platform’s influence in disseminating Chinese digital culture.
